Orban thinks Trump will broker peace in Ukraine but the EU will pay the price

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on 18/07/24 released a letter he addressed to the heads of European Union countries where he presented his impressions from a recent series of visits, which included meetings with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in the USA.

Mr Orbán’s meetings with the presidents of the Russian Federation and China provoked angry reactions by many of Hungary’s NATO and EU partners.

The Government of Hungary doesn’t support the USA/NATO/EU idea of continuing their proxy war to Russia’s “ultimate defeat” – as they hope – and the letter, which Mr Orbán sent to European Council Chairman Charles Michel on 12/07/24, outlines his assessment of meetings he held during his diplomatic initiative in an attempt to broker an end to the war in Ukraine.

Regardless of the backlash among EU leaders, for meeting Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping without first consulting his EU partners, thus “undermining EU unity on Ukraine” and “giving the false impression that he represented the bloc”, it would be interesting to look at the essence of the matter and ask ourselves whether Mr Orbán’s findings were reasonable and objective or not.

After all, Mr Orbán’s diplomatic initiative was of an exploratory nature. He never claimed that he represented the EU during this particular series of visits and made it clear that he was conducting “discussions, not negotiations”.

Mr Orbán’s findings

Some of Mr Orbán’s findings, in his letter, which he released on his website on 18/07/24, are as follows:

• It is a general observation that the intensity of the military conflict in Ukraine will radically escalate in the near future.
• Putin and Zelenskyy are unlikely to undertake initiatives for a ceasefire or peace negotiations to bring an end to the war.
• The warring parties “will not start searching for a way out of the conflict without significant external involvement.”
• The EU, along with the United States and China, are the only global powers that can influence developments in the conflict.
• The EU “has copied the pro-war policy of the US,” and should break with Washington and pursue efforts for a ceasefire.
• He thinks that Donald Trump will act as a “peace broker” in the event of an election victory this November, a scenario he described as “likely.”
• Trump “will not wait until his inauguration but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately. He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.”
• Mr Orbán seemed to confirm the fears of Ukraine and many NATO members that as president, Trump would probably oversee the cutting of U.S. financial and arms support for Kyiv.
• If Trump wins the election, “the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine.”

In the meantime, as a response to Mr Orbán’s visits to Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing, as well as a meeting with former President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate, some governments are considering boycotting upcoming informal meetings in Budapest in connection with Hungary’s holding of the EU’s six-month rotating presidency.

Our opinion

In our opinion, such reactions are completely unjustified and harmful for the cohesion and authority of the European Union itself and show how blindly the EU has been aligned to the USA/NATO under the presidency of Ursula von der Leyen.

In fact, Mr Orbán’s visits have done no harm to anybody – but, unfortunately, have not achieved anything practical either from the point of view of a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine

His findings though are a very reasonable assessment of the current situation and the prospects of the conflict in the forthcoming months, especially in the context of the economic consequences for Europe.

It now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will win the next USA presidential elections and a new picture will emerge. Mr Orbán’s prediction stands a very good chance of being proved right.

Orbán’s post on X

Viktor Orbán posted a video on X on 19/07/24 which shows himself and Donald Trump praising each other. The text reflects his hope that Trump will bring peace. It reads:

“I believe President @realDonaldTrump  did not survive the heinous assassination attempt by chance. He survived for a reason: to bring #peace to the world once again. God bless him!”